What drives copper growth?

Since 1900, annual copper use has increased 3% per annum and growth is expected to continue over the coming decades. Growth in copper use depends on many factors and is frequently discussed in the media.

However, at the highest abstraction level, the following main drivers can be identified:

• Demographics: population is still growing at about 1% per annum, mainly due to increasing life expectancy. Each person has infrastructure, accommodation, transport and energy needs that require copper.
• Development: the average per capita copper use is around 3 kg per person per year, but there are large differences. It is less than 1 kg in Africa and over 6 kg in the OECD. As developing countries climb the income curve, we can expect their copper use to increase.
• Transitions: the pattern of copper use may be changing. The energy transition now represents 10% of copper demand and grew more than 50% in 2023. Also, digitalization can be copper-intensive.

 There are however also growth mitigating factors that temper unbridled growth:

• Substitution and miniaturization: over time, we use copper ever more efficiently. E.g. while initial generations of renewable energy systems and data centres are highly copper-intentive, we can expect copper use to focus in the future on those components where there is no alternative.
• Behaviour change: societal expectations are changing, e.g. related to car ownership which no longer is the rite of passage that it was. A sharing economy can be expected to make more efficient use of resources.
• Circularity aims to keep more materials in the loop longer. Copper has a long life of 25-30 years and multiple lives. A copper atom, once mined, can remain in use for centuries.

These are long-term trends, that take decades to produce their effect.

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Last update: October 4, 2024